In 2040, the network will be able to hold the consumption of electric vehicles

The consumption of today’s electric vehicles augurs that of the cars of tomorrow ? Difficult to assert. Electric propulsion technologies are changing. As proof, those of batteries. Used until the 1990s, lead accumulators were replaced by those at Nickel-Cadmium (NICD). They themselves disappeared in the mid-2000s, prohibited due to cadmium toxicity. Nickel sodium-chloride solutions, which equipped cars from the late 1990s, were also supplanted by lithium-based batteries (lithium-metal polymer, lithium-ion polymer and lithium-ion). Technological progress using new materials, such as graphene, or new structures, such as carbon nanotubes, are announced. For our calculations, we estimated that the lithium-ion batteries would mainly team our cars.

What is the consumption of an electric car in 2023 ?

Electric cars gain popularity, and for good reason: they offer significant economic and ecological advantages. But how to calculate their energy consumption, and at what cost it comes back ?

Understand the consumption of an electric car

Calculation of consumption

To estimate the consumption of an electric car, you must refer to the energy used, expressed in kilowatt hours per kilometer (kWh/km). This measure makes it possible to compare the performance of the different models of electric vehicles. In general, average consumption is between 15 and 20 kWh/100 km, but this can vary depending on several elements, such as the weight of the vehicle, speed and driving conditions.

Comparison with thermal and hybrid vehicles

There actual energy consumption a hybrid car is generally lower than thermal vehicles (petrol or diesel). Indeed, electric motors are more effective and better convert energy into motion. To give you an idea, the average consumption of a thermal vehicle is around 6 liters/100 km, while a hybrid vehicle consumes on average 4 liters/100 km. Thus, opting for a hybrid car allows you to save energy and reduce your ecological footprint.

Factors influencing consumption

Several elements can impact the energy consumption of a hybrid car

• THE vehicle weight : the more heavy the car, the more energy it consumes
• the consumption Increase with speed, Especially when the journeys are at high speed
• weather conditions can influence the autonomy of an electric car

The cost of electricity for an electric car

The price of electricity

The cost of electricity to recharge an electric car depends mainly on Kilowatt hour price (kWh). This price varies depending on the energy supplier chosen, the subscription and the taxes. On average, the KWH price is between 0.12 and € 0.18 in France in 2023. Do not hesitate to compare the offers of the different energy suppliers to find the one that best suits your needs and your budget.

How much is an electric car for the year ?

To estimate the annual consumption of an electric car, it is necessary Take into account the distance traveled and average consumption in kWh/100 km. For example, if you travel 15,000 km per year and your car consumes 15 kWh/100 km, your annual consumption will be 2.250 kWh (15,000 x 15/100). By multiplying this figure by the price per kWh, you will get the annual cost of electricity for your vehicle. In general, the annual consumption of an electric car is significantly lower than that of a thermal vehicle.

Tips to reduce the cost of electricity

Here are some tips for reducing your electricity bill linked to the recharging of your electric car

• recharge your vehicle during off -peak hours
• opt for a Specific subscription to electric vehicles
• Find out about subsidies, premiums and special offers in your region
• Take advantage of Public charging stations

The economic and ecological advantages of electric cars

The savings made

One of the main economic advantages of electric cars is the savings made on fuel. Indeed, the cost of electricity is generally lower than that of gasoline or diesel. For example, to cover 100 km, an electric car consuming 15 kWh/100 km will cost around € 1.80 to € 2.70 in electricity, while a thermal vehicle consuming 6 liters/100 km will cost around € 9 at 12 € fuel. The savings made can be significant in the long term, it all depends on your use.

Note that car insurance can also be an economy when choosing an electric car – some insurance companies offer specific offers or preferential price offers to encourage their customers to make this choice and to support environmental advantages. Do not hesitate to contact your insurance advisor to have more information.

Environmental benefits

Electric cars also have Ecological advantages. Indeed, they do not emit CO2 when they are used, thus contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for global warming. In addition, electricity production is increasingly from renewable energy sources, which strengthens the ecological aspect of these vehicles .

Electric cars represent a major turning point in the automotive sector. Their gradual adoption by the general public is supported by the economic and ecological advantages that they offer, such as reduced energy consumption, potentially lower operating costs, minimized carbon footprint and fuel savings. However, to optimize these benefits, it is essential to compare electricity rates, choose an adapted subscription and adopt responsible charging practices.

In 2040, the network will be able to hold the consumption of electric vehicles ?

“We are announcing the end of the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040”, Declared Nicolas Hulot, Minister of Ecological and Solidarity Transition, during the launch of the Climate Plan of France on July 6, 2017. An announcement in line with those of Norway, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany and the United Kingdom. These states wish to prohibit the sale of these same vehicles, or only allow those at zero emission, from 2025 for some, in 2040 at the latest for the others. In France, this statement has raised many questions. Starting with motorization technologies that would replace those led to disappear.

According to our estimates, the consumption of electric vehicles in 2040 would be located between the electrical consumption of a region such as Normandy and PACA

End of marketing of petrol and diesel vehicles: a boulevard for electricity

“Today, the question seems to concern more electricity than gas or hydrogen”, Indicates Robin Osmont of the French Union of Electricity (UFE), Professional Association of the Electricity Sector. For the expert, hydrogen production is still too expensive to produce or even polluting when it is made from hydrocarbon. In addition, current technology generates high costs that heavily impact the price of cars. As for other gases, especially biogas, they would rather be intended for heavy goods vehicles. The future of the car thus seems to be promised to the electric, largely at least in view of the current market development. The recent announcements of the major world manufacturers abound in this direction. According to Reuters, they plan to hire $ 90 billion (74 billion euros) in the development of electric cars In the next five years. Dozens of new models would be marketed. An offer that will grow and sales that will strengthen in the decades to come.

According to our calculations, an electric car would consume 1,800 kWh per year on average in 2040

The consumption of electric vehicles varies depending on use and speed, as for thermal vehicles. A zoé, for example, has 41 kWh of energy. It displays 400 km of autonomy in approval cycles (NEDC, New European Driving Cycle, that is to say new European driving cycle). “In real use, it is rather 300 km in town and on the road at a speed less than 100 km/h. At 130 km/h, you still have to deduct 70 km of autonomy “, We enlighten Joseph Bereta, president of Avere-France, National Association for the Development of Electric Mobility. “And in winter, an electric vehicle sees its reduced autonomy. Indeed, the heating is supplied by the battery, unlike the thermal models which recover the heat emitted by the engine ». That we reassure ourselves as to the autonomy of cars in 2040. As confirmed by the president of Avere-France, it should have an autonomy of 500 to 600 km NEDC. This corresponds to a level of equilibrium both economical (price of batteries/autonomy) and technical (mass of the vehicle/autonomy). It is today the level of high -end car autonomy, like the Tesla.

In total, An electric car would therefore consume a maximum between 13 and 20 kWh per 100 km, or 0.17 kWh/km on average approximately. However, according to INSEE, passenger cars traveled 13,274 km on average in 2016. Assuming that we would remain at this level of mileage, An electric car would consume 2,257 kWh per year on average. Joseph Bereta makes a slightly downward estimate: “In the future, consumption will drop. Heating pumps will optimize heating. LED lighting will be generalized. The weight of vehicles and friction will be reduced. There will undoubtedly be photovoltaic roofs. All this will help lower consumption by 20% ”. This would bring consumption to around 1800 kWh/year. It remains to be seen how many electric vehicles will run in 2040 to assess electricity needs.

In 2040, the electric vehicle park could reach 15.6 million vehicles

“We have established four scenarios by 2035. These count on a fleet of electric vehicles between 5.5 and 15.6 million ” – RTE

The 2040 electric car fleet is the great unknown of our equation. If on this date, sales will be exclusively battery or rechargeable hybrid cars, this does not mean that the park will have been fully converted. Today, there are 32.2 million passenger cars in France (2016 INSEE figure). In 2017, 41,724 electric cars sold the electric park at 15,354 according to Avere-France, 0.5% of the Total Park. However, over the next decades, Sales of electric cars will accelerate every year. “In 2030, a study made with the Foundation for Nature and Man estimated the number of electric vehicles at 4 million”, Note Joseph Bereta, “If we have 4 million electric vehicles in 2030, they can be estimated to 10 to 12 million in 2040 »».

In a press release tuning its offer dedicated to electric vehicles, EDF estimated them at 14 million at the same deadline. RTE, the manager of the public high-voltage electricity transport network in mainland France, has issued assumptions in its “forecasting balance of the Electricity Offer-Demand balance in France, 2017 edition”. “We have established four scenarios by 2035. These count on a fleet of electric vehicles included Between 5.5 and 15.6 million »», Detail RTE. Scenarii deemed plausible by Negawatt, an independent non-profit association which brings together energy experts and campaigns for a safe and environmentally friendly energy future. To estimate the consumption of electric vehicles and the ways to respond, we can rely on the two scenarios of RTE, entitled Ampère and Hertz, presenting the greatest number of cars. The 15.6 million taken into account being the figure closest to those announced by our other interlocutors.

With 15.6 million vehicles consuming an average of 1800 kWh per year, we obtain 28 TWh of annual electricity.

Can the network withstand an increase in consumption from 28 to 34 TWh ?

“15.6 million electric vehicles, this would represent 34 TWh, or 7% of final electricity consumption” – RTE

Our means of production in 2040 be able to provide such an amount of energy ? According to RTE’s scenarios, no problem. Especially since its estimate of the amount of energy required is higher. “15.6 million electric vehicles, this would represent 34 TWh, or 7% of the final electricity consumption”, declares RTE, “Even with a larger share of electric vehicles, overall consumption would remain either stable or lower than today”.

The announcement may surprise. Indeed, if it was simply a question of adding the future consumption of these vehicles to that of today, it would be necessary to produce 34 additional TWh. Except that in 2035, and therefore In 2040, consumption will not be at all the same. France is engaged in an energy transition process, one of the pillars of which is sobriety and energy efficiency. However, important energy savings will be made thanks to the insulation of housing, the generalization of less energy-consuming household appliances or the elimination of electric radiators in favor of more efficient systems (heat pump) or non-non electric. “In all cases, the consumption of vehicles will be lower than that of current electric radiators which represents 28% of the 158.5 TWh of residential consumption”, declares RTE. This is confirmed by Marc Jedliczka, spokesperson for Negawatt: “In quantity, [the consumption of electric vehicles] does not represent so much electricity as that”.

The electricity network in 2040: equal game nuclear with renewable energies

In 2035, overall consumption was estimated at 480 TWh per RTE. In the Ampère scenario, production will be ensured almost equal to renewable energies (314 TWh) and nuclear (294 TWh), despite a drop in its installed power of 14.5 GW. This decrease is the closure of 16 900 MW reactors, in addition to the 2 of Fessenheim. With the Hertz scenario, nuclear provides 252 TWh against 243 TWh for renewable energies. Nuclear decreases at 39 GW by closing 25 reactors of 900 and 1300 MW. Today, with 63.1 GW of installed power, nuclear represents almost 75% of electricity production. Tomorrow, electricity will be half of renewable origin according to these scenarios.

The energy mix in 2035: less nuclear and thermal and more renewable energies

Installed power (in GW)

Kind	2016	Ampère scenario	Hertz scenario
Earth	11.7	52	40
Walth at sea		15	10
Photovoltaic	6.8	48	36
Hydraulic	25.5	26	26
Nuclear	63.1	48.5	39
Other thermal (gas, fuel oil, coal, etc.)	23.7	–	–

Production in TWh and (start of production)

Kind	2016	Ampère scenario	Hertz scenario
Earth	20.7 (4%)	115 (20%)	88 (18%)
Walth at sea		47 (8%)	29 (6%)
Photovoltaic	8.3 (2%)	58 (10%)	43 (9%)
Hydraulic	63.9 (12%)	68 (12%)	65 (14%)
Nuclear	384 (72%)	294 (51%)	252 (53%)
Other thermal (gas, fuel oil, coal, etc.)	54.4 (10%)	–	–

Source: RTE – The percentages being rounded, the sum may not be 100%.

The thorny point: recharge

As we have seen, The amount of electricity will be sufficient. But it is far from indicating that it will be available when and where you wish. Winter consumption peaks today put the electrical network to the test. The fact that everyone turns on their electric heating, cooking plates and lamps at the same time, poses concerns of supply.

The same problems are to be feared if the 15 million cars are charged at the same time (in the evening or during massive departures on vacation). The power called risk of being too large. Marc Jedliczka also points out: “A Tesla who recharges in 1/2h calls 120 kW. It is to be put into perspective with the domestic powers available from 6 to 9 kW. If the whole park consists of fast charging vehicles, the current low voltage network will not be able to support it. This will require heavy work that RTE does not approach in its scenarios “. The manager does not however deny the problem:

“It is certain that if the recharges are all made at 7 p.m., the consumption peak will be difficult to manage. The 15.6 million electric vehicles represent a power called 17,100 MW. For comparison, intramural Paris represents a power called 2,200 MW in winter and excluding consumption peak. » – Marc Jedliczka, Negawatt

Shift the recharge over time in exchange for more attractive prices

“The recharge of your car every night is not necessary. It can be offset. One can imagine that electricity suppliers will offer advantageous prices for consumption from 10 p.m., or even later, to avoid peaks from 6.30 pm ” – Loïc Jarrossay, Enedis

We will probably have to be content with ” fill up “ more slowly and that the recharges are distributed over time. And this, especially since the means of production may not offer the necessary power at any time. The sources of renewable energies that are the wind and the sun being by definition intermittently. How to take these good habits of use ? “The recharging can be postponed by a more attractive price offer or made by smart terminals that would shift the operation automatically”, Indicates RTE who conducts research on these intelligent meters.

Same bell at Enedis, the public electricity distribution service. “The recharge of your car every night is not necessary. It can be offset. One can imagine that the electricity suppliers will offer advantageous prices for consumption from 10 p.m., or even later, to avoid peaks from 6.30 pm-9:00 am ”, Details Loïc Jarrossay, Enedis electric mobility expert. Our electric cars could thus operate like our domestic hot water balls, in “Creak hours”. And add: “These” hollow “hours may even not be at fixed times but depending on the production capacities of renewable energy sources”. Large or sunny days could allow you to benefit from the lowest prices. However, it will not be a question of monitoring your weather vane to find out when to recharge your car. Loïc Jarrossay assures him: “Linky will be able to communicate this kind of information at the charging station. If the supplier’s contract allows, it will then trigger the recharge ”.

Some work adapting to the network to be provided

Enedis would have already achieved a pre-study on the holding of its network at the power called. According to the expert, This would currently support up to 10 million electric vehicles, with some adaptation to sites such as collective parking lots. At 15 million vehicles, some “knots” should surely be strengthened, in particular the highways, where the power called would be important. HTABT transformers, which today make the current from 20 kV to 230 V, should be replaced. “The work will not be negligible but they will be able to spread over time. We will not get there the day before 2040 », ends Loïc Jarrossay. So many solutions that should appear and be implemented by 2040 if the electric car stands out as the vehicle of the future.

Methodology: What have we included in electric vehicles ?

“Electric vehicles”: what vehicles are it a question ?

In the language of specialists, the electric automobile concerns vehicles with rechargeable batteries. “When we talk about electric vehicles, we designate rechargeable hybrid vehicles and those only with batteries”, specifies Joseph Bereta. Non -rechargeable hybrid cars are therefore not included in this electric car name. The same is true for cars with a fuel cell (hydrogen). These could however be cataloged among these vehicles since the battery supplies an electric motorization. This is not the case. In our projection, we assume that in 2040, it will always be the models with rechargeable accumulators which will constitute the vast majority of the contingent of electric vehicles.

What batteries for our electric cars ?

The consumption of today’s electric vehicles augurs that of the cars of tomorrow ? Difficult to assert. Electric propulsion technologies are changing. As proof, those of batteries. Used until the 1990s, lead accumulators were replaced by those at Nickel-Cadmium (NICD). They themselves disappeared in the mid-2000s, prohibited due to cadmium toxicity. Nickel sodium-chloride solutions, which equipped cars from the late 1990s, were also supplanted by lithium-based batteries (lithium-metal polymer, lithium-ion polymer and lithium-ion). Technological progress using new materials, such as graphene, or new structures, such as carbon nanotubes, are announced. For our calculations, we estimated that the lithium-ion batteries would mainly team our cars.

Store energy in cars, not such a good idea, the promoters of the electric car often evoke the “vehicle-to-Grid” (V2G), a technology that would allow electricity to be stored in cars in order to Reinject it on the network if necessary. “This would relieve the network during a peak in consumption and preferentially absorb the surplus of energy produced by renewable energies,” argues Joseph Bereta, president of Avere-France. Attractive, indeed. Everyone’s vehicles would thus serve the community. For some experts, this is not realistic. Marc Jedliczka, spokesperson for Negawatt, proclaims it: “V2G is a view of the mind ! It can work to modify the recharge system but not to make energy to the network. People have cars to ride when they wish. The network cannot therefore count on it when it needs it. It is not reliable “. The future will tell us who will be right.